Elizabeth Warren's three strengths and three weaknesses for 2020
With Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., launching her exploratory committee on Monday, she becomes the first top-tier Democrat to make a real move in the 2020 presidential race.
(The three other major Democrats who have either filed paperwork or have formally announced a bid for 2020 are outgoing Rep. John Delaney, D-Md., failed congressional candidate Richard Ojeda and former San Antonio Mayor Julian Castro.)
And Warren offers three big strengths – as well as three big weaknesses – when sizing up what’s expected to be the most wide-open Democratic presidential field in decades.
Warren’s three strengths:
She lives next door to New Hampshire
Several of the Democrats who have made real headways in the last several races for their party’s presidential nomination – Michael Dukakis, John Kerry, Howard Dean and Bernie Sanders – have had one thing in common: They’re from a state right next door to New Hampshire, which is a real advantage when competing in the nation’s first presidential primary.
And Warren, from Massachusetts, could very well join that group who either won New Hampshire (Dukakis, Kerry, Sanders) or who was the one-time frontrunner there (Dean).
But do note: None of those four New England-area Dems – Dukakis, Kerry, Dean or Sanders – ever made it to the White House.
She’s a progressive – inside of the Democratic Party
Unlike Bernie Sanders, who remains an independent, Warren is an official member of the Democratic Party.
Unlike Sanders, who waited WEEKS to endorse Hillary Clinton after the conclusion of the Democratic primary season in 2016, Warren endorsed Clinton right after the California primary.
And unlike Sanders, who has proudly called himself a democratic socialist, Warren labels herself as a capitalist, telling CNBC’s John Harwood back in July: “I am a capitalist. Come on. I believe in markets. What I don't believe in is theft, what I don't believe in is cheating. That's where the difference is. I love what markets can do, I love what functioning economies can do. They are what make us rich, they are what create opportunity. But only fair markets, markets with rules. Markets without rules is about the rich take it all, it's about the powerful get all of it. And that's what's gone wrong in America.”
Bottom line: Warren being a Democrat gives her the ability to get what eluded Sanders in 2016 – support from the party’s major officials and actors.
She’s a prolific fundraiser
In Warren’s 2012 Senate race against Republican Scott Brown, she raised a whopping $42 million – much of it from small donors (though that sum pales in comparison to the $80 million that Beto O’Rourke raked in during his unsuccessful Senate bid in 2018).
In her less high-profile re-election race in 2018, Warren raised more than $30 million – and is able to transfer as much as $12.5 million of it to her presidential account.
Warren’s three weaknesses:
She’s unpopular among all voters, particularly independents
A recent national Quinnipiac poll testing the favorable/unfavorable ratings for 10 potential Democratic candidates found her near the bottom – with a 30 percent positive, 37 percent negative score (-7).
While her numbers among Democratic respondents was solid (60 percent favorable, 12 percent unfavorable), her score among independents was upside down (24 percent positive, 41 percent negative).
And the one thing about presidential campaigns: Your numbers usually go down during the race. Not up.
“Pocahontas”
In response to President Trump’s “Pocahontas” digs against Warren – ridiculing her past claims of Native-American ancestry – the senator released a video in October highlighting a DNA test showing that she does indeed have Native-American ancestry in her family.
But that video produced backlash from the Cherokee Nation, which believes that tribes – and not DNA tests – are the arbiters of Native-American ancestry.
And Trump tweeted in celebration, proving the difficulty of wrestling in the mud with the president. “Pocahontas (the bad version), sometimes referred to as Elizabeth Warren, is getting slammed. She took a bogus DNA test and it showed that she may be 1/1024, far less than the average American. Now Cherokee Nation denies her, ‘DNA test is useless.’ Even they don’t want her. Phony!” Trump said.
Progressives’ poor track record in 2018
Maybe the biggest potential hurdle that Warren would face – especially when it comes to sizing up which Democrat might be best to beat Trump in 2020 – is the poor record that progressive candidates had in November’s midterms, particularly those running in red and purple areas.
Andrew Gillum lost Florida’s gubernatorial contest; progressive Dem Kara Eastman lost her congressional race in Nebraska; fellow progressive Randy “Ironstache” Bryce lost his matchup in Wisconsin; and even Bernie Sanders supporter Ben Jealous lost his challenge in blue Maryland to Republican Gov. Larry Hogan.